Fire ExiaTier 2
at Store Championship
decks
2
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
2-4-2
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.4%
avg ELO -2.2 per match
expected value
44.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1243
· median 1243
· range 1195–1292
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1060
Q1 1238
Q3 1517
1597
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 21.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.9% | +12.3 |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.1 |
| Wind Allies | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -4.1 |
