Water FractalTier 1
at Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Exia | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 52.3% | +1.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +2.7 |
| Wind Allies | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Burst Asunder | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Mana | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Awakening | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Idyll Corsage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Leeching Bolt | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kaleidoscope Barrette | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |