← Store Champs @ Sinners Refuge
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Champs @ Sinners Refuge.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Genbu | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 100.0% | 71.5% | 60.0% | 58.2% | 1392 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 62.5% | 58.6% | 55.0% | 55.7% | 1451 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 75.0% | 52.7% | 55.0% | 51.1% | 1200 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 75.0% | 58.0% | 54.0% | 52.6% | 1292 | — |
| 5 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 47.6% | 50.0% | 49.0% | 1262 | — |
| 6 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 48.1% | 50.0% | 49.0% | 1321 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 13.3% | 7 | 42.9% | 45.1% | 50.0% | 49.6% | 1281 | — |
| 8 | Water Fractal | 2 | 13.3% | 7 | 50.0% | 48.6% | 48.8% | 48.7% | 1315 | — |
| 9 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 53.4% | 48.0% | 49.8% | 1418 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Fire Rai | 1 | 6.7% | 3 | 33.3% | 50.1% | 46.7% | 50.0% | 1096 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Razorgale | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 42.5% | 44.0% | 46.3% | 1131 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 43.5% | 44.0% | 47.1% | 1168 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Slimes | 1 | 6.7% | 3 | 0.0% | 30.3% | 40.0% | 40.8% | 989 | ↓ low |