EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Apex Store Champs.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Kongming | 1 | 2.3% | 6 | 58.3% | 45.3% | 56.3% | 50.7% | 1394 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 4.7% | 12 | 58.3% | 65.3% | 54.1% | 59.2% | 1186 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Water Genbu | 4 | 9.3% | 23 | 54.3% | 44.4% | 53.0% | 48.2% | 1427 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Astra Cleric | 5 | 11.6% | 21 | 54.8% | 47.9% | 52.6% | 49.7% | 1415 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Allies | 2 | 4.7% | 11 | 54.5% | 59.3% | 51.2% | 54.2% | 1243 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 2.3% | 6 | 58.3% | 53.4% | 51.1% | 51.3% | 1269 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Fractal | 13 | 30.2% | 50 | 51.0% | 47.0% | 50.1% | 47.9% | 1380 | — |
| 8 | Fire Exia | 1 | 2.3% | 6 | 58.3% | 54.0% | 48.3% | 48.5% | 1190 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 2.3% | 6 | 58.3% | 56.4% | 47.8% | 48.8% | 1337 | — |
| 10 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 5 | 11.6% | 21 | 38.1% | 43.6% | 47.5% | 50.0% | 1285 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 7.0% | 17 | 47.1% | 57.1% | 47.0% | 52.8% | 1296 | — |
| 12 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 2.3% | 6 | 33.3% | 40.9% | 46.6% | 46.4% | 1431 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 2.3% | 6 | 50.0% | 51.1% | 46.3% | 48.2% | 1320 | — |
| 14 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 7.0% | 17 | 38.2% | 49.3% | 45.8% | 50.9% | 1243 | ↓ low |