← The Light HVN Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at The Light HVN Store Championship
decks
2
(25.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.3%
avg ELO +2.8 per match
expected value
51.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1461
· median 1461
· range 1406–1516
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1150
Q1 1270
Q3 1459
1736
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Luxem Zander | 37.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +3.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 25.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.8 |
