← Abyssal Heaven Store Championship
Water FractalTier 2
at Abyssal Heaven Store Championship
decks
2
(11.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-4-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.0%
avg ELO -1.5 per match
expected value
49.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1338
· median 1338
· range 1159–1517
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1114
Q1 1195
Q3 1333
1597
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 17.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.5% | +4.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -5.9 |
| Wind Allies | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.3 |
