Water FractalTier 2
at HASUYA ストアチャンピオンシップ
decks
1
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.8%
avg ELO -2.7 per match
expected value
42.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1545
· median 1545
· range 1545–1545
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1122
Q3 1402
1597
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 28.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.6% | -16.7 |
| Fire Byakko | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
