← HVN Store championship | outpost ghent
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at HVN Store championship | outpost ghent.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 12.5% | 5 | 90.0% | 62.2% | 57.3% | 53.2% | 1520 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Exia | 1 | 12.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 53.5% | 56.7% | 54.6% | 1418 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Fractal | 2 | 25.0% | 7 | 50.0% | 52.3% | 50.0% | 51.0% | 1209 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Water Overlord | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 50.0% | 59.1% | 50.0% | 53.7% | 1189 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 45.4% | 50.0% | 50.9% | 1191 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 38.4% | 45.0% | 43.0% | 1396 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Tera Cleric | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 0.0% | 32.0% | 35.6% | 38.4% | 1170 | ↓ low |