← HVN Store championship | outpost ghent

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at HVN Store championship | outpost ghent. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Seiryuu 1 12.5% 5 90.0% 62.2% 57.3% 53.2% 1520 ↑ top
2 Fire Exia 1 12.5% 5 60.0% 53.5% 56.7% 54.6% 1418 ↑ top
3 Water Fractal 2 25.0% 7 50.0% 52.3% 50.0% 51.0% 1209 ↓ low
4 Water Overlord 1 12.5% 4 50.0% 59.1% 50.0% 53.7% 1189 ↓ low
5 Wind Shadowstrike 1 12.5% 3 33.3% 45.4% 50.0% 50.9% 1191 ↓ low
6 Fire Suzaku 1 12.5% 3 33.3% 38.4% 45.0% 43.0% 1396 ↑ top
7 Fire Tera Cleric 1 12.5% 3 0.0% 32.0% 35.6% 38.4% 1170 ↓ low