← Dragon's Lair Comics & Fantasy Austin Abyssal Heaven Store Championship
Water FractalTier 2
at Dragon's Lair Comics & Fantasy Austin Abyssal Heaven Store Championship
decks
2
(20.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
3-5-0
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.3%
avg ELO -2.7 per match
expected value
44.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1266
· median 1266
· range 1157–1376
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1065
Q1 1153
Q3 1332
1449
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 20.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.7% | -9.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Fire Exia | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.8 |
| Water Arcane Rai | 10.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.5% | +14.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.2% | -13.3 |
