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EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Aria's Cardshop Online Store Championship!.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Allies | 1 | 25.0% | 4 | 100.0% | 58.5% | 62.2% | 54.2% | 1340 | — |
| 2 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 25.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.8% | 51.1% | 51.3% | 1284 | — |
| 3 | Wind Allies | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 0.0% | 42.1% | 40.0% | 45.2% | 1593 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 0.0% | 44.2% | 40.0% | 46.5% | 1353 | — |