← Grand Archive Store Championship @ Taps Games

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Archive Store Championship @ Taps Games. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Ravishing Mill 1 6.7% 7 85.7% 59.1% 60.0% 53.7% 1414 ↑ top
2 Water Genbu 1 6.7% 7 71.4% 63.6% 59.1% 57.9% 1325 ↑ top
3 Wind Shadowstrike 1 6.7% 5 60.0% 50.5% 56.7% 53.9% 1355 ↑ top
4 Wind Allies 1 6.7% 4 62.5% 58.0% 56.2% 56.5% 1270
5 Fire Suzaku 1 6.7% 5 60.0% 53.5% 52.7% 51.8% 1316 ↑ top
6 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 6.7% 5 50.0% 54.5% 50.6% 51.8% 1234
7 Wind Seiryuu 1 6.7% 5 50.0% 50.1% 50.0% 49.9% 1185 ↓ low
8 Fire Aggro 3 20.0% 14 39.3% 41.6% 48.5% 48.2% 1235
9 Water Fractal 3 20.0% 14 46.4% 52.0% 48.1% 49.8% 1220 ↓ low
10 Wind Astra Cleric 1 6.7% 4 12.5% 34.1% 41.2% 42.5% 1211 ↓ low
11 Fire Umbra Ranger 1 6.7% 4 0.0% 31.3% 37.1% 40.3% 1122 ↓ low