← Wild Magic Store - Grand Archive Brunei Regional Tournament - Abyssal Heaven Season
Water FractalTier 1
at Wild Magic Store - Grand Archive Brunei Regional Tournament - Abyssal Heaven Season
decks
16
(19.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
83
42-30-11
overall winrate
57.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.2%
avg ELO +1.4 per match
expected value
54.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1269
· median 1274
· range 1101–1472
(16 pilots with an ELO rating)
1014
Q1 1153
Q3 1278
1610
38% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
19% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 16.7% | 19 | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 45.7% | 48.3% | -0.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 44.2% | -2.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.0% | 9 | 4-3-2 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 53.7% | +1.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.0% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 64.1% | +7.1 |
| Fire Exia | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.3% | +8.9 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 56.1% | +3.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.6% | 7 | 2-3-2 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 45.0% | -2.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.3% | +19.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 66.4% | +12.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.1% | -14.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diao Chan | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.5% | +2.4 |
| Water Overlord | 1.2% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.8% | -6.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.4 |
| Wind Exia Jin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 1.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.5% | -18.7 |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Wind Tera Cleric | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | +2.7 |
Decklists · 16 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 10 mirror matches (4 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Viridian Protective Trinket, Lost in Thought, Frostsworn Paladin. Losers more often ran: Acquiescing Rejection, Wand of Frost, Fractal of Intrusion.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Banned
Lost in Thought
Winning decks ran 3.1
copies on average,
losing decks 1.5.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Frostsworn Paladin
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 3.3.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 6.
Portentous Tanggu
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 6.
Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 3.4.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 7.
Fractal of Refreshment
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 4.
Acquiescing Rejection
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Wand of Frost
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 6.
Fractal of Intrusion
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 1.
Coronation Ceremony
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Show all 68 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 48 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquiescing Rejection | -0.50 | 1 | 6 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.40 | 5 | 1 | 4 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.40 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.40 | 4 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wand of Frost | -0.40 | 0 | 4 | 5 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.40 | 4 | 0 | 6 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.30 | 3 | 0 | 7 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.30 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -0.30 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | -0.30 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -0.30 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | -0.30 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -0.30 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Automated Gardener | -0.30 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | -0.30 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.20 | 2 | 4 | 2 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -0.20 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.20 | 2 | 4 | 2 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Mana | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.10 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 4 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 6 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | |
| Burst Asunder | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.10 | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | |
| Art of War | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 4 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Halt | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Redirect Flow | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Austere Priestess | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fan of Seven Debts | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cleric Robes | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eventide Lure | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glimmer Essence Amulet | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 5 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Torpid Fractal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |