Water FractalTier 1
at /Yeti Gaming Webcam Weekly/
decks
6
(11.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20
12-7-1
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.3%
avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
53.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1365
· median 1338
· range 1144–1563
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1039
Q1 1197
Q3 1403
1582
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
17% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.6% | -0.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Water Genbu | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 2.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 51.7% | +1.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.1 |
| Zander | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
