Fire AggroTier 2
at GGA Abyssal Heaven Regional
decks
3
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
4-9-0
overall winrate
30.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.7%
avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
45.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1140
· median 1153
· range 1058–1208
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1055
Q1 1208
Q3 1365
1446
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 9.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.4% | +0.3 |
| Water Genbu | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.5 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.6 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.5% | +7.2 |
| Wind Polkhawk | 4.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.7% | -9.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
