Water GenbuTier 1
at GGA Abyssal Heaven Regional
decks
2
(9.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
6-2-2
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.3%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
55.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1435
· median 1435
· range 1424–1446
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1055
Q1 1208
Q3 1365
1446
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.6% | -19.6 |
| Water Fractal | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.7% | +1.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.8 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Polkhawk | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
