EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at HVN Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Genbu | 1 | 6.2% | 1 | 100.0% | 61.1% | 60.0% | 61.1% | 1161 | ↓ low |
| 2 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 6.2% | 1 | 100.0% | 61.1% | 60.0% | 61.1% | 1161 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Water Fractal | 5 | 31.2% | 9 | 72.2% | 60.0% | 55.0% | 54.3% | 1348 | — |
| 4 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 75.0% | 58.6% | 53.8% | 52.8% | 1423 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Allies | 2 | 12.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 42.8% | 52.7% | 51.8% | 1266 | — |
| 6 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 12.5% | 6 | 66.7% | 60.8% | 50.3% | 49.1% | 1331 | — |
| 7 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 48.9% | 46.0% | 49.4% | 1277 | — |
| 8 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 12.5% | 4 | 25.0% | 40.2% | 42.0% | 42.8% | 1308 | — |
| 9 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 0.0% | 22.3% | 40.0% | 39.0% | 1203 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Exia | 1 | 6.2% | 2 | 0.0% | 42.6% | 33.3% | 42.6% | 1362 | ↑ top |