← Yeti Gaming Weekly 4/24/2025
Fire AggroTier 2
at Yeti Gaming Weekly 4/24/2025
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -0.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.2 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zander | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Cutthroat | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignited Stab | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dire Requiem | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |