EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at HVN BrandX StoreChamp.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 100.0% | 63.4% | 60.0% | 55.3% | 1445 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 75.0% | 62.9% | 56.0% | 56.3% | 1362 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 55.0% | 56.7% | 1299 | — |
| 4 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 62.5% | 58.1% | 52.5% | 53.2% | 1449 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 52.0% | 52.4% | 1392 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 34.5% | 52.0% | 45.7% | 1419 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Genbu | 2 | 12.5% | 8 | 56.2% | 51.4% | 51.4% | 50.6% | 1321 | — |
| 8 | Fire Exia | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 38.7% | 50.0% | 45.5% | 1460 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Polkhawk | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 59.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.7% | 50.0% | 49.9% | 1314 | — |
| 11 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 51.9% | 47.5% | 50.8% | 1215 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 25.0% | 41.0% | 45.0% | 46.4% | 1187 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Water Tera Kongming | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 25.0% | 34.3% | 44.0% | 42.4% | 1355 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Water Allies | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 25.0% | 46.2% | 44.0% | 47.8% | 1107 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 0.0% | 37.1% | 40.0% | 44.6% | 1040 | ↓ low |