Fire AggroTier 1
at NLG Store Champs
decks
2
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-3-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.8%
avg ELO +1.0 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1304
· median 1304
· range 1250–1359
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1141
Q1 1212
Q3 1517
1597
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Exia | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Water Fractal | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.4% | +24.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Wind Slimes | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
