Water FractalTier 2
at NLG Store Champs
decks
2
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-6-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.1%
avg ELO -1.8 per match
expected value
44.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1187
· median 1187
· range 1159–1214
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1141
Q1 1212
Q3 1517
1597
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Fire Exia | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.4% | +15.7 |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Wind Allies | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Wind Slimes | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
