← Curio Cavern Loisdale HVN Store Championship
Fire AggroTier 1
at Curio Cavern Loisdale HVN Store Championship
decks
2
(20.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
5-1-0
overall winrate
83.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
63.6%
avg ELO +7.3 per match
expected value
58.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1479
· median 1479
· range 1451–1507
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1138
Q1 1303
Q3 1414
1507
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 20.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.0% | +12.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.2 |
| Fire Kongming | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
