← Curio Cavern Loisdale HVN Store Championship
Water AlliesTier 1
at Curio Cavern Loisdale HVN Store Championship
decks
1
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
3-1-0
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
64.4%
avg ELO +9.2 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1321
· median 1321
· range 1321–1321
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1138
Q1 1303
Q3 1414
1507
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 20.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 20.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.0 |
| Fire Kongming | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
