EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Genbu | 1 | 6.2% | 7 | 85.7% | 67.2% | 61.0% | 58.8% | 1436 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Fractal | 3 | 18.8% | 10 | 60.0% | 51.1% | 54.5% | 51.5% | 1313 | — |
| 3 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 6.2% | 5 | 50.0% | 56.0% | 51.5% | 53.6% | 1425 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 3 | 18.8% | 16 | 53.1% | 56.6% | 50.3% | 52.5% | 1348 | — |
| 5 | Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 45.0% | 47.1% | 45.3% | 1236 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 12.5% | 6 | 41.7% | 53.1% | 46.9% | 50.6% | 1121 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Astra Cleric | 3 | 18.8% | 14 | 42.9% | 44.2% | 46.8% | 46.4% | 1320 | — |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 35.2% | 46.2% | 42.0% | 1490 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Water Diao Chan | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 0.0% | 30.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | 1091 | ↓ low |