Oinker's Island Win-A-Case!

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Slimes	Tier 2	2	16.7%	3-6-1	35.0%	49.2%	46.4%	49.7%	1168	↓ low
2		Water Astra Cleric	Tier 2	2	16.7%	3-5-0	37.5%	48.7%	44.6%	49.2%	1338	—
3		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 1	2	16.7%	7-0-1	93.8%	54.7%	61.2%	51.7%	1408	↑ top
4		Fire Aggro	Tier 1	1	8.3%	5-1-0	83.3%	52.7%	55.6%	50.7%	1214	↓ low
5		Water Fractal	Tier 2	1	8.3%	2-2-0	50.0%	50.8%	48.0%	49.9%	1269	—
6		Water Overlord	Tier 1	1	8.3%	2-2-0	50.0%	49.4%	50.0%	49.7%	1525	↑ top
7		Water Penguin Mill	Tier 1	1	8.3%	2-2-0	50.0%	49.4%	50.0%	49.7%	1525	↑ top
8		Wind Allies	Tier 1	1	8.3%	2-2-0	50.0%	50.2%	50.0%	50.1%	1253	—
9		Wind Exia	Tier 1	1	8.3%	3-1-0	75.0%	50.8%	56.0%	50.5%	1347	↑ top
10		Wind Neos	Tier 2	1	8.3%	0-4-0	0.0%	45.3%	40.0%	48.1%	1126	↓ low
11		Wind Wakeup Combo	Tier 2	1	8.3%	1-5-0	16.7%	47.6%	42.9%	49.1%	1417	↑ top

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Slimes 2 decks · 16.7%
• Water Astra Cleric 2 decks · 16.7%
• Wind Shadowstrike 2 decks · 16.7%
• Fire Aggro 1 deck · 8.3%
• Water Fractal 1 deck · 8.3%
• Water Overlord 1 deck · 8.3%
• Water Penguin Mill 1 deck · 8.3%
• Wind Allies 1 deck · 8.3%
• Wind Exia 1 deck · 8.3%
• Wind Neos 1 deck · 8.3%
• Wind Wakeup Combo 1 deck · 8.3%