EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Oinker's Island Win-A-Case!.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 16.7% | 8 | 93.8% | 54.7% | 61.2% | 51.7% | 1408 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Exia | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 75.0% | 50.8% | 56.0% | 50.5% | 1347 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 83.3% | 52.7% | 55.6% | 50.7% | 1214 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Water Overlord | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.4% | 50.0% | 49.7% | 1525 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Penguin Mill | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.4% | 50.0% | 49.7% | 1525 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Allies | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.2% | 50.0% | 50.1% | 1253 | — |
| 7 | Water Fractal | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.8% | 48.0% | 49.9% | 1269 | — |
| 8 | Slimes | 2 | 16.7% | 10 | 35.0% | 49.2% | 46.4% | 49.7% | 1168 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Astra Cleric | 2 | 16.7% | 8 | 37.5% | 48.7% | 44.6% | 49.2% | 1338 | — |
| 10 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 16.7% | 47.6% | 42.9% | 49.1% | 1417 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Wind Neos | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 45.3% | 40.0% | 48.1% | 1126 | ↓ low |