EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Jeux HVN Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Genbu | 2 | 6.2% | 9 | 94.4% | 73.5% | 68.8% | 64.0% | 1362 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 66.7% | 58.1% | 64.9% | 63.0% | 1381 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 66.7% | 50.9% | 61.4% | 56.9% | 1431 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.1% | 3 | 66.7% | 61.3% | 58.8% | 60.8% | 1431 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 6.2% | 11 | 40.9% | 59.0% | 54.7% | 62.7% | 1296 | — |
| 6 | Wind Allies | 1 | 3.1% | 3 | 66.7% | 57.7% | 51.9% | 54.7% | 1329 | — |
| 7 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 3.1% | 3 | 66.7% | 57.7% | 51.9% | 54.7% | 1329 | — |
| 8 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 70.0% | 60.3% | 51.1% | 52.1% | 1378 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Water Fractal | 13 | 40.6% | 34 | 45.6% | 41.9% | 49.7% | 48.0% | 1311 | — |
| 10 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 6.2% | 6 | 33.3% | 49.8% | 45.4% | 50.1% | 1239 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 46.4% | 42.7% | 46.5% | 1185 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 46.2% | 40.7% | 38.2% | 1423 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Wind Astra Cleric | 3 | 9.4% | 12 | 33.3% | 39.0% | 40.2% | 39.5% | 1186 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 3.1% | 1 | 0.0% | 43.1% | 40.0% | 43.1% | 1206 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 3.1% | 1 | 0.0% | 43.7% | 40.0% | 43.7% | 1157 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.1% | 1 | 0.0% | 43.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | 1253 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 3.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 27.7% | 40.0% | 39.2% | 1248 | ↓ low |