EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championships .
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 4 | 40.0% | 8 | 93.8% | 75.2% | 63.1% | 60.6% | 1336 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 62.5% | 55.4% | 49.5% | 49.5% | 1584 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Exia | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 33.3% | 40.4% | 42.2% | 40.9% | 1376 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 10.0% | 1 | 0.0% | 40.9% | 40.0% | 40.9% | 1139 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 10.0% | 2 | 0.0% | 30.7% | 40.0% | 38.1% | 1431 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 20.0% | 4 | 0.0% | 35.4% | 35.6% | 41.6% | 1296 | — |