← CoreTCG Alchemical Revolution Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at CoreTCG Alchemical Revolution Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Arcane 1 8.3% 6 75.0% 56.9% 62.0% 56.9% 1736 ↑ top
2 Fire Crux Mage 5 41.7% 12 54.2% 48.0% 55.8% 52.6% 1367
3 Water Umbra Ranger 1 8.3% 3 33.3% 40.8% 48.1% 47.3% 1357
4 Water Allies 1 8.3% 5 40.0% 50.7% 46.0% 50.5% 1237 ↓ low
5 Wind Allies 4 33.3% 14 42.9% 51.1% 41.9% 45.8% 1408 ↑ top