Fire AggroTier 1
at CBD Store Champs
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 25.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.0% | +7.7 |
| Water Fractal | 25.0% | 6 | 1-3-2 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -4.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 11 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 11 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |