Water FractalTier 1
at CBD Store Champs
decks
2
(25.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
6-2-3
overall winrate
68.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.0%
avg ELO +5.2 per match
expected value
59.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1329
· median 1329
· range 1327–1331
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1142
Q1 1215
Q3 1370
1511
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 37.5% | 6 | 3-1-2 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +4.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 25.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.6% | +8.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
