Fire ExiaTier 1
at Abyssal Heaven Regionals
decks
3
(8.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
8-6-2
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.8%
avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
51.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1240
· median 1283
· range 1103–1335
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1058
Q1 1143
Q3 1305
1382
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 16.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.4% | -3.0 |
| Slimes | 8.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.6% | +7.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +4.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Water Fractal | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Water Genbu | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.8% | -14.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Wind Beast | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Neos | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
