Water FractalTier 1
at CMB Store Champs
decks
3
(18.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
8-5-0
overall winrate
61.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.2%
avg ELO +3.9 per match
expected value
50.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1316
· median 1333
· range 1226–1390
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1088
Q1 1221
Q3 1417
1576
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +2.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.4% | -7.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.8 |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -4.0 |
| Wind Exia Jin | 6.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 63.0% | +9.7 |
| Wind Overlord | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
