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Water FractalTier 1
at Yeti Gaming Webcam Grand Archive Thursday Weeklies 6/5
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 17.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.4 |
| Water Genbu | 8.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Wind Allies | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 51.7% | +1.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Slimes | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.2 |
| Water Neos | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -0.9 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.6 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Torpid Fractal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Bubble Mage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostnip Pirouette | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |