← Yeti Gaming Webcam Grand Archive Thursday Weeklies 6/19
Fire ArisannaTier 2
at Yeti Gaming Webcam Grand Archive Thursday Weeklies 6/19
decks
2
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
2
1-1-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.1%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
45.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1214
· median 1214
· range 1165–1263
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1204
Q3 1417
1563
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 6.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luxem Assassin | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Rogue | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
