← Yeti Gaming Webcam Grand Archive Thursday Weeklies 6/19

Water GenbuTier 1

at Yeti Gaming Webcam Grand Archive Thursday Weeklies 6/19

decks
3 (6.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10 6-4-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.6% avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
52.9% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1447 · median 1463 · range 1316–1563 (3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094 Q1 1204 Q3 1417 1563
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Aggro 6.4% 0
Water Fractal 6.4% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 49.3% -0.6
Wind Astra Cleric 6.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.8% +1.2
Wind Shadowstrike 6.4% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 51.3% +1.2
Fire Arisanna 4.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.7% +1.1
Fire Firebloom Burn 4.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 48.7% -2.1
Fire Suzaku 4.3% 0
Slimes 4.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.6% +1.0
Wind Allies 4.3% 0
Wind Razorgale 4.3% 0
Fire Crux Lorraine 2.1% 0
Fire Crux Mage 2.1% 0
Fire Exia 2.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 50.0% +0.0
Fire Kongming 2.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 50.0% +0.0
Fire Luxem Assassin 2.1% 0
Fire Slimes 2.1% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 2.1% 0
Luxem Assassin 2.1% 0
Rogue 2.1% 0
Water Allies 2.1% 0
Water Crux Mage 2.1% 0
Water Dawn of Ashes 2.1% 0
Water Neos 2.1% 0
Water Umbra Diana 2.1% 0
Wind Byakko 2.1% 0
Wind Exia Jin 2.1% 0
Wind Lorraine 2.1% 0
Wind Luxem Zander 2.1% 0
Wind Seiryuu 2.1% 0
Wind Wakeup Combo 2.1% 0
Decklists · 3 from this event

The 3 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 44 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 44 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Fractal of Polar Depths +1.00 1 0 0
Frostbind -1.00 0 1 0
Primordial Ritual +1.00 1 0 0
Revitalizing Cleanse +1.00 1 0 0
Giant Tortoise -1.00 0 1 0
Unbroken Mustang +1.00 1 0 0
Alkahest -1.00 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket -1.00 0 1 0
Fractal of Rain +1.00 1 0 0
Forest Cake -1.00 0 1 0
Pelagic Fatestone +1.00 1 0 0
Rippleback Terrapin -1.00 0 1 0
Resonating Fugue +1.00 1 0 0
Grand Crusader's Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Young Beastbonder -1.00 0 1 0
Expel the Departed +1.00 1 0 0
Idle Thoughts -1.00 0 1 0
Carpsong Coda -1.00 0 1 0
Portentous Tanggu +1.00 1 0 0
Glacial Evocation -1.00 0 1 0
Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored +1.00 1 0 0
Clockwork Musicbox -1.00 0 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -1.00 0 1 0
Backup Charger +1.00 1 0 0
Strategem of Myriad Ice +1.00 1 0 0
Necklace of Foresight -1.00 0 1 0
Limitless Slime -1.00 0 1 0
Conniving Plans +1.00 1 0 0
Cerulean Decree +1.00 1 0 0
Nascent Blast +1.00 1 0 0
Allen, Beast Beckoner -1.00 0 1 0
Blinding Orb +1.00 1 0 0
Quicksilver Grail -1.00 0 1 0
Tideholder Claymore +1.00 1 0 0
Bedivere, Woodland Overseer -1.00 0 1 0
Guo Jia, Blessed Scion +1.00 1 0 0
Tariff Ring -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Mirror -1.00 0 1 0
Tome of Sorcery +1.00 1 0 0
Ocean's Blessing -1.00 0 1 0
Refracting Missile +1.00 1 0 0
Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia -1.00 0 1 0
Tidal Lock +1.00 1 0 0
Beastbond Ears -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/26685/archetypes/Water Genbu