Fire AggroTier 2
at June Month-ender with PRs
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.5% | -1.4 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.4 |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 53.0% | +2.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +3.0 |
| Water Genbu | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 46.3% | -3.5 |
| Water Neos | 5.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 52.9% | +2.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.2% | -2.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 47.8% | -2.1 |
| Wind Lorraine | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.5% | -2.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.1 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 79 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 79 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kingdom Informant | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ignited Stab | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Azure Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baby Silver Slime | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Unrelenting | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Worn Gearblade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relic of Dancing Embers | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Shenju | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baby Red Slime | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fated Keepsake | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lavaplume Fatestone | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slime Eruption | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incandescent Reliquary | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dire Requiem | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Penetrator Round | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polkhawk, Boisterous Riot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Framework Sidearm | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamebolt Arbalist | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Contraband Revolver | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tinderflare Pivot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bombard Flarecannon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volatile Fusilier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Airship Cannoneer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dodge Roll | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |