Water FractalTier 2
at June Month-ender with PRs
decks
1
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
0-6-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.7%
avg ELO -2.8 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1146
· median 1146
· range 1146–1146
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1137
Q1 1166
Q3 1313
1421
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 22.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.2% | -3.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -2.8 |
| Water Genbu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.2% | -2.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
