← HVN Season Revelfest Tourney #1
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at HVN Season Revelfest Tourney #1.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 12.5% | 2 | 100.0% | 51.1% | 60.0% | 50.7% | 1508 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Allies | 1 | 12.5% | 1 | 100.0% | 50.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | 1420 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Overlord | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 66.7% | 50.6% | 55.0% | 50.4% | 1313 | — |
| 4 | Water Fractal | 2 | 25.0% | 6 | 66.7% | 50.9% | 52.9% | 50.3% | 1252 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 12.5% | 2 | 0.0% | 48.7% | 40.0% | 49.2% | 1367 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 12.5% | 1 | 0.0% | 50.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | 1327 | — |
| 7 | Water Genbu | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 0.0% | 48.4% | 28.6% | 48.4% | 1181 | ↓ low |