← Road To Regionals: DTR @Favonia HQ (Revelfest)

Wind AlliesTier 2

at Road To Regionals: DTR @Favonia HQ (Revelfest)

decks
3 (21.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10 2-5-3
overall winrate
35.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.6% avg ELO -1.1 per match
expected value
45.1% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1313 · median 1353 · range 1182–1404 (3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1042 Q1 1190 Q3 1391 1460
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Aggro 14.3% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 48.3% -1.3
Fire Luxem Assassin 7.1% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.8% +0.8
Fire Slimes 7.1% 0
Fire Suzaku 7.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 47.9% -3.3
Slimes 7.1% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 49.7% -0.5
Water Firebloom Burn 7.1% 0
Water Fractal 7.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 47.9% -3.3
Water Umbra Diana 7.1% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 7.1% 0
Wind Shadowstrike 7.1% 2 0-0-2 50.0% 50.0% 49.2% -0.7
Decklists · 3 from this event

The 3 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 50 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 50 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Dilu, Auspicious Charger -1.00 0 1 0
Cleansing Reunion -1.00 0 1 0
Reconnaissance Scout -1.00 0 1 0
Aesan Protector +1.00 1 0 0
Eternal Directive +1.00 1 0 0
Perse, Relentless Raptor -1.00 0 1 0
Seeker's Rifle -1.00 0 1 0
Lurking Assailant +1.00 1 0 0
Displace -1.00 0 1 0
Veiling Breeze -1.00 0 1 0
Charged Mannequin +1.00 1 0 0
Diana, Keen Huntress -1.00 0 1 0
Sword of Seeking +1.00 1 0 0
Rallied Advance +1.00 1 0 0
Windrider Vanguard +1.00 1 0 0
Cry for Help +1.00 1 0 0
Andronika, Eternal Herald +1.00 1 0 0
Eternal Magistrate +1.00 1 0 0
Favorable Winds -1.00 0 1 0
Poisoned Coating Oil +1.00 1 0 0
Safeguard Amulet -1.00 0 1 0
Fairy Whispers +1.00 1 0 0
Clarent, Sword of Peace +1.00 1 0 0
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior +1.00 1 0 0
Scatter Essence -1.00 0 1 0
Winbless Rangefinder -1.00 0 1 0
Windpiercer -1.00 0 1 0
Reclaim -1.00 0 1 0
Rose, Eternal Paragon +1.00 1 0 0
Shimmercloak Assassin +1.00 1 0 0
Unbroken Mustang -1.00 0 1 0
Staggering Strike +1.00 1 0 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +1.00 1 0 0
Liu Bei, Oathkeeper -1.00 0 1 0
Tempest Downfall +1.00 1 0 0
Yunzhou Cavalry -1.00 0 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +1.00 1 0 0
Deflecting Edge +1.00 1 0 0
Clarent, Reimagined +1.00 1 0 0
Second Wind +1.00 1 0 0
Ornamental Greatsword +1.00 1 0 0
Diana, Deadly Duelist -1.00 0 1 0
Veiled Dash -1.00 0 1 0
Emerald Pistol -1.00 0 1 0
Tariff Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Brackish Lutist -1.00 0 1 0
Brisk Windtrotter -1.00 0 1 0
Zephyr +1.00 1 0 0
Innervate Agility +1.00 1 0 0
Skirting Step -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/29772/archetypes/Wind Allies