Road To Regionals: DTR @Favonia HQ (Revelfest)

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Wind Allies	Tier 2	3	21.4%	2-5-3	35.0%	47.6%	45.1%	48.9%	1313	—
2		Fire Aggro	Tier 1	2	14.3%	6-4-0	60.0%	51.8%	53.5%	50.9%	1133	↓ low
3		Fire Luxem Assassin	Tier 1	1	7.1%	2-2-0	50.0%	47.6%	51.7%	49.1%	1448	↑ top
4		Fire Slimes	Tier 2	1	7.1%	1-3-0	25.0%	47.4%	48.0%	49.5%	1342	↑ top
5		Fire Suzaku	Tier 1	1	7.1%	3-2-0	60.0%	52.5%	54.3%	51.3%	1420	↑ top
6		Slimes	Tier 1	1	7.1%	1-1-2	50.0%	50.3%	50.0%	50.2%	1223	—
7		Water Firebloom Burn	Tier 2	1	7.1%	2-2-0	50.0%	51.4%	48.0%	50.1%	1212	↓ low
8		Water Fractal	Tier 1	1	7.1%	4-2-0	66.7%	52.0%	53.3%	50.7%	1173	↓ low
9		Water Umbra Diana	Tier 1	1	7.1%	2-2-0	50.0%	51.4%	50.0%	50.5%	1268	—
10		Wind Astra Cleric	Tier 1	1	7.1%	3-1-1	70.0%	49.5%	54.0%	49.8%	1460	↑ top
11		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 2	1	7.1%	0-2-2	25.0%	48.3%	46.0%	49.7%	1063	↓ low

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Wind Allies 3 decks · 21.4%
• Fire Aggro 2 decks · 14.3%
• Fire Luxem Assassin 1 deck · 7.1%
• Fire Slimes 1 deck · 7.1%
• Fire Suzaku 1 deck · 7.1%
• Slimes 1 deck · 7.1%
• Water Firebloom Burn 1 deck · 7.1%
• Water Fractal 1 deck · 7.1%
• Water Umbra Diana 1 deck · 7.1%
• Wind Astra Cleric 1 deck · 7.1%
• Wind Shadowstrike 1 deck · 7.1%