← Revelfest Special Event Tuesday
Fire AggroTier 2
at Revelfest Special Event Tuesday
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 17.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 17.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.2 |
| Water Slice & Dice | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermilion Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Weaponsmith | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strapping Conscript | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Temper in Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |