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Water FractalTier 1
at Revelfest Special Event Tuesday
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 17.6% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.9% | +0.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Water Genbu | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slice & Dice | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.2 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.6 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Extricating Touch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |