← Grand Archive: Distorted Reflections Case Tournament @ Taps Games
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Grand Archive: Distorted Reflections Case Tournament @ Taps Games
decks
1
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
8-1-0
overall winrate
88.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.3%
avg ELO +1.1 per match
expected value
63.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1414
· median 1414
· range 1414–1414
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
988
Q1 1224
Q3 1383
1423
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 30.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 51.9% | +1.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 20.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 20.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 51.9% | +1.8 |
| Fire Suited | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Allies | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 52.4% | +2.3 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Ravishing Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
