← Yeti Gaming HVN Weekly 7/24/2025
Water FractalTier 1
at Yeti Gaming HVN Weekly 7/24/2025
decks
2
(9.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
4-1-1
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.7%
avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
57.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1380
· median 1380
· range 1196–1563
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1180
Q3 1442
1563
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Wind Allies | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Jin | 4.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
