Fire Crux MageTier 1
at KADO Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 56.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -2.4 |
| Fire Exia | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -4.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.5 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Wind Ciel | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |