← GA Middle East Weekly DTR #4
Fire Umbra CielTier 2
at GA Middle East Weekly DTR #4
decks
1
(6.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.5%
avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
49.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1276
· median 1276
· range 1276–1276
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1159
Q1 1236
Q3 1373
1493
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 40.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Fire Suited | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 6.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
