← GA Middle East Weekly DTR #5
Fire RileTier 1
at GA Middle East Weekly DTR #5
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 11.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.8% | -1.2 |
| Fire Suited | 11.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Rile | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 51.1% | +1.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Ignorance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |