EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at TripleTactics TCG Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Luxem Assassin

62.2%

3.1% share · 10 matches

3.1% share · 7 matches

3.1% share · 6 matches

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#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Water Astra Ranger	1	3.1%	7	71.4%	51.6%	63.4%	56.0%	1342	↑ top
2	Fire Luxem Assassin	1	3.1%	10	80.0%	62.9%	62.2%	58.9%	1525	↑ top
3	Fire Firebloom Burn	1	3.1%	6	75.0%	67.5%	59.4%	60.2%	1431	↑ top
4	Water Fractal	2	6.2%	9	61.1%	44.0%	56.4%	49.7%	1375	↑ top
5	Wind Diana	1	3.1%	5	40.0%	49.5%	53.7%	55.0%	1198	↓ low
6	Wind Allies	2	6.2%	11	59.1%	59.3%	52.7%	53.1%	1333	—
7	Water Astra Diana	1	3.1%	3	33.3%	52.9%	52.5%	56.7%	1252	—
8	Wind Shadowstrike	5	15.6%	30	50.0%	43.9%	52.4%	49.0%	1260	—
9	Wind Seiryuu	2	6.2%	19	65.8%	64.4%	51.0%	53.8%	1317	—
10	Fire Crux Mage	4	12.5%	17	38.2%	48.0%	50.4%	53.4%	1236	↓ low
11	Fire Oblation	1	3.1%	8	56.2%	60.4%	49.4%	53.0%	1362	↑ top
12	Fire Suited	1	3.1%	6	33.3%	47.3%	48.6%	51.5%	1160	↓ low
13	Fire Rile	10	31.2%	45	43.3%	45.3%	47.1%	47.4%	1289	—
14	Wind Astra Cleric	1	3.1%	5	40.0%	40.7%	46.3%	45.2%	1367	↑ top
15	Fire Aggro	4	12.5%	20	47.5%	53.5%	45.8%	49.8%	1270	—
16	Fire Exia	1	3.1%	7	28.6%	33.3%	44.3%	41.7%	1272	—
17	Fire Suzaku	1	3.1%	7	28.6%	33.1%	44.1%	42.4%	1293	—
18	Water Diana	1	3.1%	5	40.0%	46.6%	42.7%	45.8%	1173	↓ low