← TinyRobot Grand Mythic Champion DTR
Fire RileTier 1
at TinyRobot Grand Mythic Champion DTR
decks
6
(35.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
33
16-16-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.6%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
52.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1247
· median 1229
· range 1157–1383
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1121
Q1 1193
Q3 1324
1504
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 17.6% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -1.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 53.1% | +1.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 66.9% | +12.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.7% | +14.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 11.8% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -4.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.1% | -9.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Wind Allies | 5.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.8% | -5.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.7% | +7.4 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Reduce to Ash, Ghosts of Pendragon, Dungeon Guide. Losers more often ran: Demolition, Peppered Chef, Restorative Flame.
Reduce to Ash
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Ghosts of Pendragon
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Dungeon Guide
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Fluffy Shopkeep
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Backup Charger
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Demolition
Losing decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Peppered Chef
Losing decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Restorative Flame
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Searing Truth
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Fabled Ruby Fatestone
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 91 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 71 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demolition | -1.00 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -1.00 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -1.00 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rile the Abyss | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Flamelash Beastmaster | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Baby Red Slime | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Dire Requiem | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurid Dreaming | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fireball | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incinerated Templar | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |