← Honors Ground DTR Store Championship
Fire Umbra CielTier 1
at Honors Ground DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.1%
avg ELO +3.5 per match
expected value
54.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1107
· median 1107
· range 1107–1107
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1107
Q1 1171
Q3 1282
1421
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rile | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.0 |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
